After a very successful first year in our league, I had high hopes for young Mikey. And then he started RB-RB-RB and that all went to shit. But we’ll back to that in a second.

In his first draft with us, Mike Kelly nailed exactly one top-two round pick in second-rounder Saquon Barkley (whom he picked at No. 6 overall). Two third-rounders in George Kittle and Leonard Fournette (whomst he selected in the second and TENTH rounds (!!)), a repeat fourth-rounder in Lamar Jackson, a fifth-rounder and a sixth-rounder out of the sixth and eighth rounds a year ago (Elijah Moore, DeVonta Smith). A solid smattering of talent (and bad injury luck a year ago) and one huge hit in Playoff Lenny is more than enough to get you to be the top winner/worst-luck loser among the first-round playoff losers.

Starting this year as the only RBx3 drafter, Mike certainly has set himself apart. Zagged when he was thinking the conventional ‘zig’ a month earlier was Zero RB. 

Najee Harris, for me, easily possesses the lowest upside of the three he selected in the Steelers’ new offense. He was among the worst RBs in the league last year at making defenders miss, and doing anything after the catch, and commanding receiving volume with any downfield depth at all, and his touch ceiling has certainly already been hit at 381 a year ago. What can he do to improve? Maybe a significant QB or O-line upgrade that boosts the offense everywhere? Hard pass on that bet.

Saquon Barkley is almost the inverse of that bet. He’s a lesser CMC; an ultra-talented ‘The RB1’ finisher the last time he was healthy whose offense should improve massively. He has nowhere to go but up from the last two years of coaching. Fucking Jason Garrett. 

Brian Daboll is an offensive genius and Saquon will surely reap the benefits of that fact. Stay tuned.

Travis Etienne is in line to do what D’Andre Swift did a year ago. Yes, he has a solid veteran runner to split reps with (maybe) (more on that later), but he has a preternatural mind meld with his QB dating back four years, and he is extremely agile and fast. We once said the same things about Austin Ekeler. Etienne is my No. 14 player. Great pick.

Diontae Johnson, DK Metcalf, Amari Cooper, Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson is a hell of a WR corps if you’re looking for WRs who are possibly less talented than WR teammates and who have question marks at QBs (Jameis Winston being by far the best QB among this group’s five).

But on the other hand, Diontae has graded as a top-five or so guy for the last couple of years on WR Whisperer Matt Harmon’s ReceptionPerception in every facet of route running, while Olave was Harmon’s #1 rookie route runner and Wilson was Harmon’s favorite all-around rookie receiver. Amari is definitely a shell of his former self (no way you start him until week 13, and, if you’re starting him during your stretch run, well, good luck), and DK is definitely locked into some god awful QB play for the first time in his career, still opposite another talented WR and, new addition to the offense, talented TE in Noah Fant.

Diontae’s target and catch numbers definitely thrived under the insanely quick-hitting, low-aDOT offense that Big Ben has coordinated and helmed over the past two years, and any change could be reason for worry, but perhaps some newfound efficiency in Mitch Trubisky (ehh) or Kenny Pickett (ehh?!) can even the likely loss in targets back out. The only true reasons for worry may be Pat Freiermuth going into his sophomore season primed to be Pittsburgh’s best red zone weapon, and George Pickens and Chase Claypool may both run hot for stretches. With anywhere from three to five weekly mouths to feed in this likely up-and-down passing attack, I’m just not so certain that the two most expensive options (Najee and Diontae) are the ways to play it. But don’t get me wrong, this was some pretty great value, especially among this crop of drafters who prioritize proven, veteran pass-catchers.

Olave and Wilson were astute picks at these respective stages, repeats of Mike’s DeVonta Smith and Elijah Moore bets last year that worked out quite well at different stages a year ago. If either one of these 2022 guys explode in the way that rookies unpredictably can, Mike will have a fucking team on his hands.

Dak Prescott, sure. He lost a viable weapon in Amari Cooper and more importantly lost a top-five left tackle in the league without a viable replacement, one who Dak has struggled immensely without in his career, but he’s still a just fine pick here. Not much upside to explode beyond this point would be my only gripe.

James Robinson coming off an Achilles tear eight months ago and with a much more talented RB taking all of the passing-game work? I don’t think so. You even bought into Etienne earlier in this draft, so why are we wasting time with a hobbled handcuff? Not so great.

Kenneth Gainwell, again in 2022? Whatever, that’s solid. Alec Pierce and David Bell, more scratch-off ticket upside bets? Absolutely. Bell I quite like to be leading the charge among this Cleveland Browns WR crop by the time Deshaun Watson is back. He’s a target-sponge heck of a route-running YAC star and contested catcher who bombed the combine, much like Keenan Allen and Jarvis Landry before him.

Deshaun Watson…. eh. Don’t think the 12 week hole he burns into your roster is worth the buy-in of a draft pick. I’m curious to see if Mike correctly drops Watson before week 1 or if he drops an all-too-valuable rookie that I will be spending FAAB money on after they hit the wire.

David Bell and Wan’Dale Robinson are yet more rookie scratch-off tickets, both of whom were extremely productive in college and both of whom will likely start in the slot for their teams. Love the picks. Can’t wait to pick either or both of them up, as mentioned above. (One note I’d make on Robinson is if Sterling Shepard comes back, who knows where the targets flow in this offense week to week.)

And finally, Hayden Hurst. Not great.

In all, Mike did pretty well considering he locked himself into a RBx3 start before the draft even began. Significantly better WR bets were available at the spots where he selected DK and Amari (Michael Thomas (who he could have traded for FUCKING A.J. BROWN PLUS!!!), Elijah Moore, Gabe Davis, JuJu Smith-Schuster, DeVonta Smith, Brandon Aiyuk, Kadarius Toney, and every rookie besides London were among the crop available, but I’d also count Rondale Moore, KJ Hamler and others as better bets outright than Amari and possibly DK as well), and I think that might ultimately mean his demise.

He will need two of his three running backs to remain healthy for the majority of the season and need one of his many rookie pass-catchers to pop in the same way that Justin Jefferson, Jaylen Waddle or at least Amon-Ra St. Brown have the past couple of years to give him a leg up over the teams that will be left to battle in mid-late December. And that is inherently a bet I’m ready to buy into, especially when we’re talking about the insane volume with which Mike loaded his cupboard. Don’t fuck it up.

Overall Grade: B

Projected Finish: 9-5, Loses in the first round because he only has one of his top three running backs healthy